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Is the ESG Craze Really Fading?
Most people don’t know that it is the editors, not the writers, who craft headlines. This should be common knowledge among media consumers (but it’s not). Perhaps this is why well-written articles...
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Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State
We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months,...
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The “Art” of Market Timing
This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any)...
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“Clown Car”
By now you surely know the story: In 2019, Elon Musk unveiled the Tesla Cyber truck, making all sorts of amazing promises. This is more than just an indulgent flight of fancy: Americans buy 2.5...
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Forecasting Recessions
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction....
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Retailers Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”
No, “nearly half” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the...
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Lessons of “Number Go Up”
Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Then there are the times when they...
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Nobody Knows Anything, Squid Game edition
Remember Squid Game? Written and directed by Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Squid Game” made its debut on Netflix on September 17, 2001. It quickly became must-see TV during the pandemic lockdown, Variety...
View ArticleAt the Money: Forecasting Recessions
At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how can they tell if one’s coming? There’s an indicator for that. It’s called the...
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CPI Shelter Measures: 6-12 Month Lag
Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all...
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